Eibar vs Las Palmas — La Liga 2 result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 27 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 8.2 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Eibar
51%
pick · result
Draw
28%
Las Palmas
21%
Final score
3–2
Top pick landed
Metis gave an Eibar win 51.3% before kick-off, and its most likely result was an Eibar win. Expected goals 1.47–0.91 against 3–2 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–0 (14.0%), 1–1 (13.3%), 2–1 (10.4%). It finished 3–2.
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Eibar
| 16 Aug | H | vs Tenerife | 1–3 | L |
| 23 Aug | H | vs Valladolid | 1–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Andorra | 1–0 | W |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Granada | 3–0 | W |
| 14 Sept | A | vs Celta B | 4–0 | W |
Las Palmas
| 16 Aug | H | vs Albacete | 2–1 | W |
| 22 Aug | A | vs Ceuta | 2–0 | W |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Girona | 2–5 | L |
| 4 Sept | H | vs Leganes | 0–0 | D |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Cadiz | 1–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Eibar (Home · 6 matches) | Las Palmas (Away · 6 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 66.7% | 66.7% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 50.0% | 66.7% |
| Clean sheet | 33.3% | 33.3% |
| Avg goals | 2.83 | 4.00 |
Home stats use Eibar's home record; away stats use Las Palmas's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.