Eibar vs Las Palmas — La Liga 2 forecast, Sunday, 27 September 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Eibar
48%
Draw
30%
Las Palmas
23%
Expected goals
1.41–0.94
Eibar · Las Palmas
Eibar win 48% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (14.0%), 1–0 (13.1%), 0–0 (10.7%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 48% of simulations.
Those three cover 38% of outcomes; the other 62% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Eibar win is 1–0 (13.1%).
Eibar score at least twice in 41%; Las Palmas in 24%.
Scoreline distribution
Las Palmas goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 7.1 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 14.0 | 5.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.6 | 4.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Eibar goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 43% | 30% | 28% |
| Market reference | 48% | 30% | 23% |
| Metis Forecast | 48% | 30% | 23% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle | Bet365 | William Hill | 1xBet | Betano | Betfair SB | BetVictor | MarathonBet | SBO | Best |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eibar | 2.02 | 1.95 | 2.00 | 2.02 | 1.98 | 1.91 | 1.95 | 1.96 | 1.97 | 2.02 Pinnacle |
| Draw | 3.18 | 3.30 | 3.20 | 3.32 | 3.15 | 3.25 | 3.30 | 3.22 | 2.98 | 3.32 1xBet |
| Las Palmas | 4.13 | 3.75 | 3.50 | 4.06 | 4.35 | 3.60 | 3.60 | 3.94 | 3.28 | 4.35 Betano |
Reference prices, published with the 23 Sep · 03:58 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Eibar
| 16 Aug | H | vs Tenerife | 1–3 | L |
| 23 Aug | H | vs Valladolid | 1–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Andorra | 1–0 | W |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Granada | 3–0 | W |
| 14 Sept | A | vs Celta B | 4–0 | W |
Las Palmas
| 16 Aug | H | vs Albacete | 2–1 | W |
| 22 Aug | A | vs Ceuta | 2–0 | W |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Girona | 2–5 | L |
| 4 Sept | H | vs Leganes | 0–0 | D |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Cadiz | 1–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Eibar (Home · 3 matches) | Las Palmas (Away · 3 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 33.3% | 33.3% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 66.7% | 33.3% |
| Clean sheet | 66.7% | 66.7% |
| Avg goals | 2.67 | 3.33 |
Home stats use Eibar's home record; away stats use Las Palmas's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.