Eibar vs Cadiz — La Liga 2 forecast, Sunday, 15 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Eibar
60%
Draw
23%
Cadiz
17%
Expected goals
1.76–0.88
Eibar · Cadiz
Eibar win 60% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–0 (12.8%), 2–0 (11.5%), 1–1 (11.0%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 49% of simulations.
Those three cover 35% of outcomes; the other 65% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Eibar score at least twice in 53%; Cadiz in 22%.
Scoreline distribution
Cadiz goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 5.2 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 11.0 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.4 | 10.7 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.3 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Eibar goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 53% | 26% | 20% |
| Market reference | 60% | 23% | 17% |
| Metis Forecast | 60% | 23% | 17% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Eibar | 1.62 |
| Draw | 4.06 |
| Cadiz | 5.28 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 10 Nov · 04:35 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Eibar
| 16 Aug | H | vs Tenerife | 1–3 | L |
| 23 Aug | H | vs Valladolid | 1–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Andorra | 1–0 | W |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Granada | 3–0 | W |
| 14 Sept | A | vs Celta B | 4–0 | W |
Cadiz
| 15 Aug | H | vs Celta B | 0–0 | D |
| 22 Aug | A | vs Eldense | 2–2 | D |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Valladolid | 1–1 | D |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Almeria | 2–3 | L |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Las Palmas | 0–1 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Eibar (Home · 6 matches) | Cadiz (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 66.7% | 80.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 50.0% | 60.0% |
| Clean sheet | 33.3% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.83 | 3.20 |
Home stats use Eibar's home record; away stats use Cadiz's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.