Cordoba vs Almeria — La Liga 2 result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 12 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 10.6 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Cordoba
39%
top pick
Draw
27%
Almeria
34%
result
Final score
0–2
Top pick missed
Metis gave an Almeria win 33.8% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Cordoba win. Expected goals 1.38–1.27 against 0–2 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (12.9%), 1–0 (9.0%), 2–1 (8.7%). It finished 0–2.
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Cordoba
| 16 Aug | A | vs Burgos | 2–3 | L |
| 21 Aug | H | vs Girona | 2–1 | W |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Granada | 1–3 | L |
| 7 Sept | A | vs Sabadell | 2–3 | L |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Almeria | 0–2 | L |
Almeria
| 17 Aug | H | vs Eldense | 3–0 | W |
| 23 Aug | A | vs Tenerife | 0–1 | L |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Sabadell | 0–1 | L |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Cadiz | 3–2 | W |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Cordoba | 2–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Cordoba (Home · 5 matches) | Almeria (Away · 6 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 60.0% | 33.3% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 60.0% | 16.7% |
| Clean sheet | 20.0% | 33.3% |
| Avg goals | 3.20 | 2.17 |
Home stats use Cordoba's home record; away stats use Almeria's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.