Ceuta vs Valladolid — La Liga 2 result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 20 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 5.9 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Ceuta
32%
Draw
29%
result
Valladolid
39%
top pick
Final score
1–1
Top pick missed
Metis gave the draw 29.0% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Valladolid win. Expected goals 1.16–1.26 against 1–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (13.8%), 0–1 (10.8%), 0–0 (9.8%). It finished 1–1 — one of them.
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Ceuta
| 15 Aug | A | vs Andorra | 1–5 | L |
| 22 Aug | H | vs Las Palmas | 0–2 | L |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Mallorca | 0–3 | L |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Celta B | 0–2 | L |
| 11 Sept | A | vs Burgos | 1–3 | L |
Valladolid
| 15 Aug | A | vs Mallorca | 0–2 | L |
| 23 Aug | A | vs Eibar | 0–1 | L |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Cadiz | 1–1 | D |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Andorra | 1–0 | W |
| 13 Sept | H | vs Oviedo | 0–3 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Ceuta (Home · 7 matches) | Valladolid (Away · 6 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 57.1% | 66.7% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 42.9% | 33.3% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.57 | 2.33 |
Home stats use Ceuta's home record; away stats use Valladolid's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.