🇪🇸 La Liga 2·Monday, 31 August 2026·19:30
Odds comparison
| Market | Pinnacle | Best |
|---|---|---|
| Celta Vigo II | 4.16 | 4.16 |
| Draw | 3.90 | 3.90 |
| Castellon | 1.79 | 1.79 |
Metis Forecast
model + marketCelta Vigo II
22%
Draw
24%
Castellon
54%
Celta Vigo II 1.02 xGexpected goals1.51 xG Castellon
Castellon win 54% of the current Metis Forecast.
Both teams score in 51% of simulations.
The most likely scoreline is 0–1 (14.4%).
Celta Vigo II score at least twice in 27%; Castellon in 46%.
0–1 14.4%1–2 12.5%1–1 11.4%0–2 9.6%0–0 7.6%1–0 5.7%
Scoreline distribution
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 14.4 | 9.6 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 11.4 | 12.5 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 4.9 | 4.1 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
rows = Celta Vigo II goals · columns = Castellon goals · % of simulations
Match outcomes
Both teams score51%
Over 1.5 goals72%
Over 2.5 goals47%
Over 3.5 goals24%
Over 4.5 goals11%
Celta Vigo II clean sheet20%
Castellon clean sheet37%
Celta Vigo II score 2+27%
Castellon score 2+46%
Celta Vigo II score 3+9%
Model vs market
| Source | Celta Vigo II | Draw | Castellon |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 38% | 29% | 33% |
| Market (de-vigged) | 22% | 24% | 54% |
| Metis Forecast | 22% | 24% | 54% |
The Metis Forecast combines the model's scoreline structure with de-vigged market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model output is kept separate and benchmarked independently.
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Recent form
No recent results.
Castellon
| 16 Aug | A | vs Santander | 1–3 | L |
| 22 Aug | H | vs Valladolid | 0–1 | L |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Zaragoza | 1–1 | D |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Cordoba | 1–2 | L |
| 14 Sept | H | vs Ceuta | 3–3 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings found.
Model context
| Stat | Celta Vigo II (Home) | Castellon (Away) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | — | 57.1% |
| Over 2.5 rate | — | 47.6% |
| Clean sheet | — | 33.3% |
| Avg goals | — | 2.57 |
Home stats use Celta Vigo II's home record; away stats use Castellon's away record this season.