Celta Vigo II vs Castellon — La Liga 2 result and pre-match forecast, Monday, 31 August 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 1.3 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Celta Vigo II
22%
Draw
24%
Castellon
54%
pick · result
Final score
1–2
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Castellon win 53.8% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Castellon win. Expected goals 1.01–1.50 against 1–2 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 0–1 (14.8%), 1–2 (12.5%), 1–1 (11.3%). It finished 1–2 — one of them.
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Celta Vigo II
| 31 Aug | H | vs Castellon | 1–2 | L |
Castellon
| 31 Aug | A | vs Celta Vigo II | 2–1 | W |
| 14 Aug | A | vs Sociedad B | 1–0 | W |
| 23 Aug | H | vs Sabadell | 0–0 | D |
| 31 Aug | A | vs Celta B | 2–1 | W |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Albacete | 2–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Celta Vigo II (Home · no matches) | Castellon (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | — | 50.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | — | 50.0% |
| Clean sheet | — | 50.0% |
| Avg goals | — | 2.25 |
Home stats use Celta Vigo II's home record; away stats use Castellon's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.