Castellon vs Sp Gijon — La Liga 2 forecast, Sunday, 25 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Castellon
64%
Draw
21%
Sp Gijon
15%
Expected goals
1.88–0.80
Castellon · Sp Gijon
Castellon win 64% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–0 (13.1%), 2–0 (12.6%), 2–1 (10.6%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 47% of simulations.
Those three cover 36% of outcomes; the other 64% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Castellon score at least twice in 57%; Sp Gijon in 19%.
Scoreline distribution
Sp Gijon goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 9.9 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 12.6 | 10.6 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 7.5 | 6.3 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Castellon goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 59% | 25% | 16% |
| Market reference | 64% | 21% | 15% |
| Metis Forecast | 64% | 21% | 15% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Castellon | 1.50 |
| Draw | 4.46 |
| Sp Gijon | 6.09 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Castellon
| 31 Aug | A | vs Celta Vigo II | 2–1 | W |
| 14 Aug | A | vs Sociedad B | 1–0 | W |
| 23 Aug | H | vs Sabadell | 0–0 | D |
| 31 Aug | A | vs Celta B | 2–1 | W |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Albacete | 2–0 | W |
Sp Gijon
| 17 Aug | H | vs Sabadell | 0–0 | D |
| 23 Aug | H | vs Burgos | 1–0 | W |
| 28 Aug | A | vs Tenerife | 1–0 | W |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Girona | 0–2 | L |
| 13 Sept | H | vs Eldense | 0–1 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Castellon (Home · 4 matches) | Sp Gijon (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| Clean sheet | 75.0% | 50.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.25 | 2.00 |
Home stats use Castellon's home record; away stats use Sp Gijon's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.