Castellon vs Eibar — La Liga 2 forecast, Friday, 6 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Castellon
59%
Draw
22%
Eibar
19%
Expected goals
1.76–0.94
Castellon · Eibar
Castellon win 59% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–0 (12.3%), 2–1 (11.0%), 2–0 (11.0%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 51% of simulations.
Those three cover 34% of outcomes; the other 66% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Castellon score at least twice in 53%; Eibar in 24%.
Scoreline distribution
Eibar goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 5.4 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 10.5 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.0 | 11.0 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Castellon goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 52% | 27% | 21% |
| Market reference | 59% | 22% | 19% |
| Metis Forecast | 59% | 22% | 19% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Castellon | 1.64 |
| Draw | 4.24 |
| Eibar | 4.82 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 02 Nov · 05:06 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
Want the model's read each week? Subscribe for free.
Recent form
Castellon
| 31 Aug | A | vs Celta Vigo II | 2–1 | W |
| 14 Aug | A | vs Sociedad B | 1–0 | W |
| 23 Aug | H | vs Sabadell | 0–0 | D |
| 31 Aug | A | vs Celta B | 2–1 | W |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Albacete | 2–0 | W |
Eibar
| 16 Aug | H | vs Tenerife | 1–3 | L |
| 23 Aug | H | vs Valladolid | 1–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Andorra | 1–0 | W |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Granada | 3–0 | W |
| 14 Sept | A | vs Celta B | 4–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Castellon (Home · 5 matches) | Eibar (Away · 6 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 20.0% | 50.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 40.0% | 66.7% |
| Clean sheet | 80.0% | 33.3% |
| Avg goals | 2.60 | 3.00 |
Home stats use Castellon's home record; away stats use Eibar's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.