Cadiz vs Valladolid — La Liga 2 result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 30 August 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 9.1 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Cadiz
36%
top pick
Draw
31%
result
Valladolid
33%
Final score
1–1
Top pick missed
Metis gave the draw 31.0% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Cadiz win. Expected goals 1.22–1.13 against 1–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (14.6%), 0–0 (10.9%), 0–1 (10.0%). It finished 1–1 — one of them.
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Cadiz
| 15 Aug | H | vs Celta B | 0–0 | D |
| 22 Aug | A | vs Eldense | 2–2 | D |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Valladolid | 1–1 | D |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Almeria | 2–3 | L |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Las Palmas | 0–1 | L |
Valladolid
| 15 Aug | A | vs Mallorca | 0–2 | L |
| 23 Aug | A | vs Eibar | 0–1 | L |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Cadiz | 1–1 | D |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Andorra | 1–0 | W |
| 13 Sept | H | vs Oviedo | 0–3 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Cadiz (Home · 5 matches) | Valladolid (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 40.0% | 60.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 40.0% | 20.0% |
| Clean sheet | 40.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.00 | 2.20 |
Home stats use Cadiz's home record; away stats use Valladolid's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.