Cadiz vs Leganes — La Liga 2 forecast, Saturday, 3 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Cadiz
33%
Draw
30%
Leganes
37%
Expected goals
1.13–1.20
Cadiz · Leganes
Leganes win 37% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (14.1%), 0–1 (10.8%), 0–0 (10.7%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 48% of simulations.
Those three cover 36% of outcomes; the other 64% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Cadiz score at least twice in 31%; Leganes in 34%.
Scoreline distribution
Leganes goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 10.8 | 7.0 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 14.1 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 7.4 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Cadiz goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 34% | 30% | 36% |
| Market reference | 33% | 30% | 37% |
| Metis Forecast | 33% | 30% | 37% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle | Bet365 | William Hill | 1xBet | Betano | Betfair SB | BetVictor | MarathonBet | Best |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cadiz | 2.88 | 3.20 | 3.30 | 2.96 | 3.10 | 2.75 | 2.90 | 2.88 | 3.30 William Hill |
| Draw | 3.16 | 3.20 | 3.00 | 3.24 | 3.25 | 3.10 | 3.13 | 3.14 | 3.25 Betano |
| Leganes | 2.59 | 2.15 | 2.15 | 2.53 | 2.37 | 2.38 | 2.30 | 2.45 | 2.59 Pinnacle |
Reference prices, published with the 29 Sep · 04:06 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
Want the model's read each week? Subscribe for free.
Recent form
Cadiz
| 15 Aug | H | vs Celta B | 0–0 | D |
| 22 Aug | A | vs Eldense | 2–2 | D |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Valladolid | 1–1 | D |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Almeria | 2–3 | L |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Las Palmas | 0–1 | L |
Leganes
| 16 Aug | A | vs Girona | 1–1 | D |
| 22 Aug | A | vs Oviedo | 1–0 | W |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Eldense | 1–0 | W |
| 4 Sept | A | vs Las Palmas | 0–0 | D |
| 13 Sept | A | vs Tenerife | 0–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Cadiz (Home · 4 matches) | Leganes (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 50.0% | 25.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 25.0% | 0.0% |
| Clean sheet | 25.0% | 50.0% |
| Avg goals | 1.50 | 1.25 |
Home stats use Cadiz's home record; away stats use Leganes's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.