Cadiz vs Leganes — La Liga 2 result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 3 October 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 8.2 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Cadiz
34%
result
Draw
31%
Leganes
35%
top pick
Final score
4–0
Top pick missed
Metis gave a Cadiz win 33.8% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Leganes win. Expected goals 1.14–1.17 against 4–0 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (14.6%), 0–0 (11.2%), 1–0 (10.3%). It finished 4–0.
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Cadiz
| 15 Aug | H | vs Celta B | 0–0 | D |
| 22 Aug | A | vs Eldense | 2–2 | D |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Valladolid | 1–1 | D |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Almeria | 2–3 | L |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Las Palmas | 0–1 | L |
Leganes
| 16 Aug | A | vs Girona | 1–1 | D |
| 22 Aug | A | vs Oviedo | 1–0 | W |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Eldense | 1–0 | W |
| 4 Sept | A | vs Las Palmas | 0–0 | D |
| 13 Sept | A | vs Tenerife | 0–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Cadiz (Home · 8 matches) | Leganes (Away · 7 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 50.0% | 28.6% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 50.0% | 42.9% |
| Clean sheet | 25.0% | 28.6% |
| Avg goals | 2.25 | 2.71 |
Home stats use Cadiz's home record; away stats use Leganes's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.