Cadiz vs Las Palmas — La Liga 2 result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 12 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 5.9 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Cadiz
39%
top pick
Draw
29%
Las Palmas
32%
result
Final score
0–1
Top pick missed
Metis gave a Las Palmas win 32.2% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Cadiz win. Expected goals 1.24–1.16 against 0–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (13.8%), 1–0 (11.3%), 0–0 (10.0%). It finished 0–1.
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Cadiz
| 15 Aug | H | vs Celta B | 0–0 | D |
| 22 Aug | A | vs Eldense | 2–2 | D |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Valladolid | 1–1 | D |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Almeria | 2–3 | L |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Las Palmas | 0–1 | L |
Las Palmas
| 16 Aug | H | vs Albacete | 2–1 | W |
| 22 Aug | A | vs Ceuta | 2–0 | W |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Girona | 2–5 | L |
| 4 Sept | H | vs Leganes | 0–0 | D |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Cadiz | 1–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Cadiz (Home · 7 matches) | Las Palmas (Away · 6 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 42.9% | 66.7% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 42.9% | 66.7% |
| Clean sheet | 28.6% | 33.3% |
| Avg goals | 2.14 | 4.00 |
Home stats use Cadiz's home record; away stats use Las Palmas's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.