Burgos vs Sociedad B — La Liga 2 result and pre-match forecast, Monday, 31 August 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Independent model — no market priceFrozen as published · 13.9 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Burgos
48%
top pick
Draw
28%
result
Sociedad B
24%
Final score
2–2
Top pick missed
Metis gave the draw 28.1% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Burgos win. Expected goals 1.49–0.98 against 2–2 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (13.4%), 1–0 (11.7%), 0–0 (9.5%). It finished 2–2.
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Burgos
| 16 Aug | H | vs Cordoba | 3–2 | W |
| 23 Aug | A | vs Sp Gijon | 0–1 | L |
| 31 Aug | H | vs Sociedad B | 2–2 | D |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Oviedo | 0–0 | D |
| 11 Sept | H | vs Ceuta | 3–1 | W |
Sociedad B
| 14 Aug | H | vs Castellon | 0–1 | L |
| 22 Aug | A | vs Albacete | 2–1 | W |
| 31 Aug | A | vs Burgos | 2–2 | D |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Tenerife | 1–1 | D |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Andorra | 3–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Burgos (Home · 4 matches) | Sociedad B (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 75.0% | 100.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 75.0% | 100.0% |
| Clean sheet | 25.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.50 | 3.75 |
Home stats use Burgos's home record; away stats use Sociedad B's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.