Burgos vs Ceuta — La Liga 2 result and pre-match forecast, Friday, 11 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 14.9 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Burgos
59%
pick · result
Draw
24%
Ceuta
18%
Final score
3–1
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Burgos win 58.9% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Burgos win. Expected goals 1.75–0.88 against 3–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–0 (12.6%), 2–0 (11.4%), 1–1 (11.2%). It finished 3–1.
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Burgos
| 16 Aug | H | vs Cordoba | 3–2 | W |
| 23 Aug | A | vs Sp Gijon | 0–1 | L |
| 31 Aug | H | vs Sociedad B | 2–2 | D |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Oviedo | 0–0 | D |
| 11 Sept | H | vs Ceuta | 3–1 | W |
Ceuta
| 15 Aug | A | vs Andorra | 1–5 | L |
| 22 Aug | H | vs Las Palmas | 0–2 | L |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Mallorca | 0–3 | L |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Celta B | 0–2 | L |
| 11 Sept | A | vs Burgos | 1–3 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Burgos (Home · 7 matches) | Ceuta (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 57.1% | 80.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 42.9% | 80.0% |
| Clean sheet | 28.6% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.57 | 3.80 |
Home stats use Burgos's home record; away stats use Ceuta's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.