Andorra vs Leganes — La Liga 2 forecast, Friday, 20 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Andorra
50%
Draw
26%
Leganes
24%
Expected goals
1.56–1.00
Andorra · Leganes
Andorra win 50% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12.6%), 1–0 (11.1%), 2–0 (9.5%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 51% of simulations.
Those three cover 33% of outcomes; the other 67% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Andorra win is 1–0 (11.1%).
Andorra score at least twice in 46%; Leganes in 27%.
Scoreline distribution
Leganes goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 7.0 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 12.6 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.4 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Andorra goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 50% | 27% | 23% |
| Market reference | 50% | 26% | 24% |
| Metis Forecast | 50% | 26% | 24% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Andorra | 1.94 |
| Draw | 3.57 |
| Leganes | 3.94 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 15 Nov · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Andorra
| 15 Aug | H | vs Ceuta | 5–1 | W |
| 24 Aug | A | vs Celta B | 2–4 | L |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Eibar | 0–1 | L |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Valladolid | 0–1 | L |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Sociedad B | 1–3 | L |
Leganes
| 16 Aug | A | vs Girona | 1–1 | D |
| 22 Aug | A | vs Oviedo | 1–0 | W |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Eldense | 1–0 | W |
| 4 Sept | A | vs Las Palmas | 0–0 | D |
| 13 Sept | A | vs Tenerife | 0–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Andorra (Home · 6 matches) | Leganes (Away · 7 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 66.7% | 28.6% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 66.7% | 42.9% |
| Clean sheet | 16.7% | 28.6% |
| Avg goals | 3.50 | 2.71 |
Home stats use Andorra's home record; away stats use Leganes's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.