Andorra vs Burgos — La Liga 2 forecast, Monday, 26 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Andorra
50%
Draw
28%
Burgos
22%
Expected goals
1.43–0.91
Andorra · Burgos
Andorra win 50% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–0 (13.9%), 1–1 (13.0%), 0–0 (10.1%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 47% of simulations.
Those three cover 37% of outcomes; the other 63% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Andorra score at least twice in 42%; Burgos in 23%.
Scoreline distribution
Burgos goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 7.2 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.9 | 13.0 | 5.3 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.9 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Andorra goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 43% | 30% | 27% |
| Market reference | 50% | 28% | 22% |
| Metis Forecast | 50% | 28% | 22% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Andorra | 1.93 |
| Draw | 3.40 |
| Burgos | 4.20 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Andorra
| 15 Aug | H | vs Ceuta | 5–1 | W |
| 24 Aug | A | vs Celta B | 2–4 | L |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Eibar | 0–1 | L |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Valladolid | 0–1 | L |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Sociedad B | 1–3 | L |
Burgos
| 16 Aug | H | vs Cordoba | 3–2 | W |
| 23 Aug | A | vs Sp Gijon | 0–1 | L |
| 31 Aug | H | vs Sociedad B | 2–2 | D |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Oviedo | 0–0 | D |
| 11 Sept | H | vs Ceuta | 3–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Andorra (Home · 5 matches) | Burgos (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 60.0% | 50.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 60.0% | 50.0% |
| Clean sheet | 20.0% | 25.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.20 | 1.75 |
Home stats use Andorra's home record; away stats use Burgos's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.