Almeria vs Cadiz — La Liga 2 result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 6 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 3.9 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Almeria
64%
pick · result
Draw
22%
Cadiz
14%
Final score
3–2
Top pick landed
Metis gave an Almeria win 64.3% before kick-off, and its most likely result was an Almeria win. Expected goals 2.05–0.84 against 3–2 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 2–0 (11.6%), 1–0 (10.5%), 1–1 (10.4%). It finished 3–2.
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Almeria
| 17 Aug | H | vs Eldense | 3–0 | W |
| 23 Aug | A | vs Tenerife | 0–1 | L |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Sabadell | 0–1 | L |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Cadiz | 3–2 | W |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Cordoba | 2–0 | W |
Cadiz
| 15 Aug | H | vs Celta B | 0–0 | D |
| 22 Aug | A | vs Eldense | 2–2 | D |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Valladolid | 1–1 | D |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Almeria | 2–3 | L |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Las Palmas | 0–1 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Almeria (Home · 6 matches) | Cadiz (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 50.0% | 80.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 83.3% | 60.0% |
| Clean sheet | 50.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.33 | 3.20 |
Home stats use Almeria's home record; away stats use Cadiz's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.