Almeria vs Burgos — La Liga 2 forecast, Saturday, 3 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Almeria
59%
Draw
24%
Burgos
17%
Expected goals
1.71–0.88
Almeria · Burgos
Almeria win 59% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–0 (13.6%), 2–0 (11.4%), 2–1 (11.3%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 49% of simulations.
Those three cover 36% of outcomes; the other 64% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Almeria score at least twice in 52%; Burgos in 22%.
Scoreline distribution
Burgos goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 5.0 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.6 | 11.3 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.4 | 11.3 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Almeria goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 49% | 28% | 24% |
| Market reference | 59% | 24% | 17% |
| Metis Forecast | 59% | 24% | 17% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle | William Hill | 1xBet | Betano | Betfair SB | MarathonBet | Best |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Almeria | 1.63 | 1.62 | 1.66 | 1.70 | 1.57 | 1.61 | 1.70 Betano |
| Draw | 3.93 | 3.60 | 3.97 | 3.80 | 3.60 | 3.85 | 3.97 1xBet |
| Burgos | 5.35 | 4.80 | 5.31 | 5.10 | 5.00 | 5.15 | 5.35 Pinnacle |
Reference prices, published with the 28 Sep · 04:02 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
What changed overnight?
vs previous runxG 1.52–1.00 → 1.71–0.88
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Almeria
| 17 Aug | H | vs Eldense | 3–0 | W |
| 23 Aug | A | vs Tenerife | 0–1 | L |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Sabadell | 0–1 | L |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Cadiz | 3–2 | W |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Cordoba | 2–0 | W |
Burgos
| 16 Aug | H | vs Cordoba | 3–2 | W |
| 23 Aug | A | vs Sp Gijon | 0–1 | L |
| 31 Aug | H | vs Sociedad B | 2–2 | D |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Oviedo | 0–0 | D |
| 11 Sept | H | vs Ceuta | 3–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Almeria (Home · 3 matches) | Burgos (Away · 3 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 33.3% | 33.3% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 66.7% | 33.3% |
| Clean sheet | 66.7% | 33.3% |
| Avg goals | 3.33 | 1.33 |
Home stats use Almeria's home record; away stats use Burgos's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.