Almeria vs Burgos — La Liga 2 result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 3 October 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 6.0 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Almeria
62%
pick · result
Draw
23%
Burgos
15%
Final score
2–1
Top pick landed
Metis gave an Almeria win 61.7% before kick-off, and its most likely result was an Almeria win. Expected goals 1.81–0.87 against 2–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–0 (13.0%), 2–0 (11.6%), 2–1 (11.4%). It finished 2–1 — one of them.
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Almeria
| 17 Aug | H | vs Eldense | 3–0 | W |
| 23 Aug | A | vs Tenerife | 0–1 | L |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Sabadell | 0–1 | L |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Cadiz | 3–2 | W |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Cordoba | 2–0 | W |
Burgos
| 16 Aug | H | vs Cordoba | 3–2 | W |
| 23 Aug | A | vs Sp Gijon | 0–1 | L |
| 31 Aug | H | vs Sociedad B | 2–2 | D |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Oviedo | 0–0 | D |
| 11 Sept | H | vs Ceuta | 3–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Almeria (Home · 6 matches) | Burgos (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 50.0% | 60.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 83.3% | 60.0% |
| Clean sheet | 50.0% | 20.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.33 | 2.40 |
Home stats use Almeria's home record; away stats use Burgos's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.