Almeria vs Andorra — La Liga 2 forecast, Saturday, 14 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Almeria
56%
Draw
23%
Andorra
21%
Expected goals
1.81–1.01
Almeria · Andorra
Almeria win 56% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (11.2%), 1–0 (10.0%), 2–0 (9.9%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 53% of simulations.
Those three cover 31% of outcomes; the other 69% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Almeria win is 1–0 (10.0%).
Almeria score at least twice in 54%; Andorra in 27%.
Scoreline distribution
Andorra goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 5.4 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 11.2 | 5.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.8 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Almeria goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 56% | 25% | 20% |
| Market reference | 56% | 23% | 21% |
| Metis Forecast | 56% | 23% | 21% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Almeria | 1.74 |
| Draw | 4.00 |
| Andorra | 4.46 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 10 Nov · 04:35 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Almeria
| 17 Aug | H | vs Eldense | 3–0 | W |
| 23 Aug | A | vs Tenerife | 0–1 | L |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Sabadell | 0–1 | L |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Cadiz | 3–2 | W |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Cordoba | 2–0 | W |
Andorra
| 15 Aug | H | vs Ceuta | 5–1 | W |
| 24 Aug | A | vs Celta B | 2–4 | L |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Eibar | 0–1 | L |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Valladolid | 0–1 | L |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Sociedad B | 1–3 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Almeria (Home · 6 matches) | Andorra (Away · 6 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 83.3% | 50.0% |
| Clean sheet | 50.0% | 16.7% |
| Avg goals | 3.33 | 3.00 |
Home stats use Almeria's home record; away stats use Andorra's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.