Albacete vs Eibar — La Liga 2 forecast, Saturday, 3 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Albacete
37%
Draw
30%
Eibar
34%
Expected goals
1.23–1.21
Albacete · Eibar
Albacete win 37% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (14.1%), 1–0 (10.3%), 0–0 (9.8%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 51% of simulations.
Those three cover 34% of outcomes; the other 66% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Albacete score at least twice in 35%; Eibar in 34%.
Scoreline distribution
Eibar goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 8.9 | 6.3 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 14.1 | 7.3 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.5 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Albacete goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 32% | 29% | 39% |
| Market reference | 37% | 30% | 34% |
| Metis Forecast | 37% | 30% | 34% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle | William Hill | 1xBet | Betano | Betfair SB | BetVictor | MarathonBet | Best |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Albacete | 2.61 | 2.50 | 2.60 | 2.62 | 2.40 | 2.45 | 2.52 | 2.62 Betano |
| Draw | 3.21 | 3.00 | 3.30 | 3.15 | 3.25 | 3.20 | 3.20 | 3.30 1xBet |
| Eibar | 2.83 | 2.70 | 2.83 | 2.85 | 2.63 | 2.70 | 2.74 | 2.85 Betano |
Reference prices, published with the 28 Sep · 04:02 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
What changed overnight?
vs previous runxG 1.15–1.28 → 1.23–1.21
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Albacete
| 16 Aug | A | vs Las Palmas | 1–2 | L |
| 22 Aug | H | vs Sociedad B | 1–2 | L |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Oviedo | 0–1 | L |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Castellon | 0–2 | L |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Granada | 1–1 | D |
Eibar
| 16 Aug | H | vs Tenerife | 1–3 | L |
| 23 Aug | H | vs Valladolid | 1–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Andorra | 1–0 | W |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Granada | 3–0 | W |
| 14 Sept | A | vs Celta B | 4–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Albacete (Home · 3 matches) | Eibar (Away · 3 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 66.7% | 33.3% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 66.7% | 66.7% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 66.7% |
| Avg goals | 2.33 | 2.67 |
Home stats use Albacete's home record; away stats use Eibar's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.