Albacete vs Eibar — La Liga 2 result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 3 October 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 3.7 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Albacete
37%
top pick
Draw
27%
Eibar
36%
result
Final score
1–3
Top pick missed
Metis gave an Eibar win 35.5% before kick-off, and its most likely result was an Albacete win. Expected goals 1.23–1.24 against 1–3 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (12.9%), 1–0 (10.4%), 0–1 (9.2%). It finished 1–3.
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Albacete
| 16 Aug | A | vs Las Palmas | 1–2 | L |
| 22 Aug | H | vs Sociedad B | 1–2 | L |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Oviedo | 0–1 | L |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Castellon | 0–2 | L |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Granada | 1–1 | D |
Eibar
| 16 Aug | H | vs Tenerife | 1–3 | L |
| 23 Aug | H | vs Valladolid | 1–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Andorra | 1–0 | W |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Granada | 3–0 | W |
| 14 Sept | A | vs Celta B | 4–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Albacete (Home · 6 matches) | Eibar (Away · 6 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 66.7% | 50.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 66.7% | 66.7% |
| Clean sheet | 16.7% | 33.3% |
| Avg goals | 2.67 | 3.00 |
Home stats use Albacete's home record; away stats use Eibar's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.