🇪🇸 La Liga·Sunday, 30 August 2026·19:30
Metis Forecast
model onlyCelta Vigo
46%
Draw
27%
Athletic Bilbao
26%
Celta Vigo 1.55 xGexpected goals1.12 xG Athletic Bilbao
Celta Vigo win 46% of the current Metis Forecast.
Both teams score in 54% of simulations.
The most likely scoreline is 1–1 (13.0%).
Celta Vigo score at least twice in 46%; Athletic Bilbao in 31%.
1–1 13.0%1–0 9.8%2–1 9.3%2–0 8.3%0–0 7.9%0–1 6.8%
Scoreline distribution
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 6.8 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 13.0 | 6.7 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.3 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
rows = Celta Vigo goals · columns = Athletic Bilbao goals · % of simulations
Match outcomes
Both teams score54%
Over 1.5 goals75%
Over 2.5 goals50%
Over 3.5 goals28%
Over 4.5 goals13%
Celta Vigo clean sheet33%
Athletic Bilbao clean sheet21%
Celta Vigo score 2+46%
Athletic Bilbao score 2+31%
Celta Vigo score 3+20%
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Recent form
Celta Vigo
| 17 Aug | H | vs Getafe | 0–2 | L |
| 23 Aug | A | vs Mallorca | 1–1 | D |
| 27 Aug | H | vs Real Betis | 1–1 | D |
| 31 Aug | H | vs Villarreal | 1–1 | D |
| 14 Sept | H | vs Girona | 1–1 | D |
No recent results.
Head to head
No previous meetings found.
Model context
| Stat | Celta Vigo (Home) | Athletic Bilbao (Away) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 63.2% | — |
| Over 2.5 rate | 47.4% | — |
| Clean sheet | 21.1% | — |
| Avg goals | 3.00 | — |
Home stats use Celta Vigo's home record; away stats use Athletic Bilbao's away record this season.