Vissel Kobe vs Nagoya Grampus — J1 League forecast, Saturday, 31 October 2026
Vissel Kobe
vs
06:00
Nagoya Grampus
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Vissel Kobe
52%
Draw
25%
Nagoya Grampus
23%
Expected goals
1.74–1.10
Vissel Kobe · Nagoya Grampus
Vissel Kobe win 52% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (11.8%), 2–1 (10.1%), 1–0 (9.6%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 56% of simulations.
Those three cover 31% of outcomes; the other 69% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Vissel Kobe win is 2–1 (10.1%).
Vissel Kobe score at least twice in 52%; Nagoya Grampus in 30%.
Scoreline distribution
Nagoya Grampus goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 5.5 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 11.8 | 6.1 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 10.1 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 5.7 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Vissel Kobe goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 50% | 26% | 24% |
| Market reference | 52% | 25% | 23% |
| Metis Forecast | 52% | 25% | 23% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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Vissel Kobe
| 20 Sept | A | vs Gamba Osaka | 1–0 | W |
Nagoya Grampus
| 19 Sept | A | vs FC Tokyo | 0–1 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.