V-Varen Nagasaki vs Tokyo Verdy — J1 League forecast, Sunday, 1 November 2026
V-Varen Nagasaki
vs
05:00
Tokyo Verdy
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
V-Varen Nagasaki
43%
Draw
29%
Tokyo Verdy
28%
Expected goals
1.43–1.08
V-Varen Nagasaki · Tokyo Verdy
V-Varen Nagasaki win 43% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (13.7%), 1–0 (10.0%), 0–0 (9.3%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 51% of simulations.
Those three cover 33% of outcomes; the other 67% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely V-Varen Nagasaki win is 1–0 (10.0%).
V-Varen Nagasaki score at least twice in 41%; Tokyo Verdy in 30%.
Scoreline distribution
Tokyo Verdy goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 8.2 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 13.7 | 7.2 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 8.4 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: V-Varen Nagasaki goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 47% | 28% | 25% |
| Market reference | 43% | 29% | 28% |
| Metis Forecast | 43% | 29% | 28% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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V-Varen Nagasaki
| 19 Sept | H | vs Cerezo Osaka | 1–1 | D |
Tokyo Verdy
| 19 Sept | A | vs Urawa Red Diamonds | 1–3 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.