V-Varen Nagasaki vs Cerezo Osaka — J1 League result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 19 September 2026
V-Varen Nagasaki
1 – 1
Cerezo Osaka
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 5.9 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
V-Varen Nagasaki
27%
Draw
26%
result
Cerezo Osaka
47%
top pick
Final score
1–1
Top pick missed
Metis gave the draw 26.3% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Cerezo Osaka win. Expected goals 1.27–1.58 against 1–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (12.4%), 1–2 (11.4%), 0–1 (9.8%). It finished 1–1 — one of them.
Want the model's read each week? Subscribe for free.
Recent form
V-Varen Nagasaki
| 19 Sept | H | vs Cerezo Osaka | 1–1 | D |
Cerezo Osaka
| 19 Sept | A | vs V-Varen Nagasaki | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.