Urawa Red Diamonds vs V-Varen Nagasaki — J1 League forecast, Sunday, 25 October 2026
Urawa Red Diamonds
vs
06:00
V-Varen Nagasaki
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Urawa Red Diamonds
60%
Draw
23%
V-Varen Nagasaki
18%
Expected goals
1.85–1.01
Urawa Red Diamonds · V-Varen Nagasaki
Urawa Red Diamonds win 60% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 2–1 (12.0%), 1–0 (11.3%), 1–1 (10.8%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 55% of simulations.
Those three cover 34% of outcomes; the other 66% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Urawa Red Diamonds score at least twice in 57%; V-Varen Nagasaki in 27%.
Scoreline distribution
V-Varen Nagasaki goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 4.1 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 10.8 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 12.0 | 4.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 6.5 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Urawa Red Diamonds goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 47% | 26% | 27% |
| Market reference | 60% | 23% | 18% |
| Metis Forecast | 60% | 23% | 18% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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Urawa Red Diamonds
| 19 Sept | H | vs Tokyo Verdy | 3–1 | W |
V-Varen Nagasaki
| 19 Sept | H | vs Cerezo Osaka | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.