Tokyo Verdy vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima — J1 League forecast, Sunday, 11 October 2026
Tokyo Verdy
vs
06:00
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Tokyo Verdy
14%
Draw
21%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
66%
Expected goals
0.83–2.11
Tokyo Verdy · Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Sanfrecce Hiroshima win 66% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 0–2 (11.7%), 0–1 (10.2%), 1–1 (9.9%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 50% of simulations.
Those three cover 32% of outcomes; the other 68% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Tokyo Verdy score at least twice in 20%; Sanfrecce Hiroshima in 62%.
Scoreline distribution
Sanfrecce Hiroshima goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 10.2 | 11.7 | 8.3 | 4.5 | 2.9 |
| 1 | 3.9 | 9.9 | 9.5 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 2.3 |
| 2 | 1.9 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Tokyo Verdy goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 12% | 21% | 67% |
| Market reference | 14% | 21% | 66% |
| Metis Forecast | 14% | 21% | 66% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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Tokyo Verdy
| 19 Sept | A | vs Urawa Red Diamonds | 1–3 | L |
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
| 19 Sept | A | vs Avispa Fukuoka | 1–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.