Tokyo Verdy vs Nagoya Grampus — J1 League forecast, Saturday, 21 November 2026
Tokyo Verdy
vs
05:00
Nagoya Grampus
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Tokyo Verdy
27%
Draw
28%
Nagoya Grampus
44%
Expected goals
1.14–1.51
Tokyo Verdy · Nagoya Grampus
Nagoya Grampus win 44% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (13.5%), 0–1 (9.5%), 1–2 (9.0%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 54% of simulations.
Those three cover 32% of outcomes; the other 68% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Nagoya Grampus win is 0–1 (9.5%).
Tokyo Verdy score at least twice in 32%; Nagoya Grampus in 45%.
Scoreline distribution
Nagoya Grampus goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 9.5 | 8.0 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 13.5 | 9.0 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 6.9 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Tokyo Verdy goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 27% | 27% | 45% |
| Market reference | 27% | 28% | 44% |
| Metis Forecast | 27% | 28% | 44% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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Tokyo Verdy
| 19 Sept | A | vs Urawa Red Diamonds | 1–3 | L |
Nagoya Grampus
| 19 Sept | A | vs FC Tokyo | 0–1 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.