Tokyo Verdy vs Avispa Fukuoka — J1 League forecast, Saturday, 24 October 2026
Tokyo Verdy
vs
06:00
Avispa Fukuoka
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Tokyo Verdy
30%
Draw
32%
Avispa Fukuoka
38%
Expected goals
1.11–1.26
Tokyo Verdy · Avispa Fukuoka
Avispa Fukuoka win 38% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (15.2%), 0–0 (11.0%), 0–1 (10.7%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 50% of simulations.
Those three cover 37% of outcomes; the other 63% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Tokyo Verdy score at least twice in 30%; Avispa Fukuoka in 36%.
Scoreline distribution
Avispa Fukuoka goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.0 | 10.7 | 7.2 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 15.2 | 8.4 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 6.7 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Tokyo Verdy goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 34% | 30% | 36% |
| Market reference | 30% | 32% | 38% |
| Metis Forecast | 30% | 32% | 38% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
What changed overnight?
vs previous runxG 1.06–1.32 → 1.11–1.26
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Tokyo Verdy
| 19 Sept | A | vs Urawa Red Diamonds | 1–3 | L |
Avispa Fukuoka
| 19 Sept | H | vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 0–1 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.