Shimizu S-Pulse vs Tokyo Verdy — J1 League forecast, Saturday, 7 November 2026
Shimizu S-Pulse
vs
04:00
Tokyo Verdy
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Shimizu S-Pulse
42%
Draw
29%
Tokyo Verdy
29%
Expected goals
1.40–1.15
Shimizu S-Pulse · Tokyo Verdy
Shimizu S-Pulse win 42% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (14.0%), 1–0 (9.9%), 0–0 (9.0%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 53% of simulations.
Those three cover 33% of outcomes; the other 67% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Shimizu S-Pulse score at least twice in 41%; Tokyo Verdy in 32%.
Scoreline distribution
Tokyo Verdy goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 7.6 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 14.0 | 6.9 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 8.9 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.1 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Shimizu S-Pulse goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 41% | 28% | 31% |
| Market reference | 42% | 29% | 29% |
| Metis Forecast | 42% | 29% | 29% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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Shimizu S-Pulse
| 19 Sept | H | vs JEF United Chiba | 2–1 | W |
Tokyo Verdy
| 19 Sept | A | vs Urawa Red Diamonds | 1–3 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.