Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Yokohama F. Marinos — J1 League forecast, Saturday, 21 November 2026
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
vs
05:00
Yokohama F. Marinos
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
69%
Draw
18%
Yokohama F. Marinos
13%
Expected goals
2.35–0.92
Sanfrecce Hiroshima · Yokohama F. Marinos
Sanfrecce Hiroshima win 69% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 2–0 (10.7%), 2–1 (9.9%), 1–0 (8.5%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 55% of simulations.
Those three cover 29% of outcomes; the other 71% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Sanfrecce Hiroshima score at least twice in 68%; Yokohama F. Marinos in 24%.
Scoreline distribution
Yokohama F. Marinos goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 8.4 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.7 | 9.9 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.3 | 7.6 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.8 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 3.5 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Sanfrecce Hiroshima goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 68% | 19% | 13% |
| Market reference | 69% | 18% | 13% |
| Metis Forecast | 69% | 18% | 13% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Want the model's read each week? Subscribe for free.
Recent form
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
| 19 Sept | A | vs Avispa Fukuoka | 1–0 | W |
Yokohama F. Marinos
| 19 Sept | H | vs Mito HollyHock | 2–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.