Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Shimizu S-Pulse — J1 League forecast, Saturday, 24 October 2026
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
vs
05:00
Shimizu S-Pulse
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
70%
Draw
18%
Shimizu S-Pulse
12%
Expected goals
2.54–0.92
Sanfrecce Hiroshima · Shimizu S-Pulse
Sanfrecce Hiroshima win 70% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 2–0 (9.8%), 3–0 (8.7%), 1–1 (8.5%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 55% of simulations.
Those three cover 27% of outcomes; the other 73% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Sanfrecce Hiroshima score at least twice in 71%; Shimizu S-Pulse in 24%.
Scoreline distribution
Shimizu S-Pulse goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 8.5 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 8.3 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.7 | 7.4 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 5.8 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 5.2 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Sanfrecce Hiroshima goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 75% | 16% | 9% |
| Market reference | 70% | 18% | 12% |
| Metis Forecast | 70% | 18% | 12% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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Sanfrecce Hiroshima
| 19 Sept | A | vs Avispa Fukuoka | 1–0 | W |
Shimizu S-Pulse
| 19 Sept | H | vs JEF United Chiba | 2–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.