Mito HollyHock vs Shimizu S-Pulse — J1 League forecast, Sunday, 11 October 2026
Mito HollyHock
vs
06:00
Shimizu S-Pulse
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Mito HollyHock
35%
Draw
28%
Shimizu S-Pulse
36%
Expected goals
1.36–1.33
Mito HollyHock · Shimizu S-Pulse
Shimizu S-Pulse win 36% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (13.5%), 1–2 (8.8%), 0–1 (8.5%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 56% of simulations.
Those three cover 31% of outcomes; the other 69% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Mito HollyHock score at least twice in 39%; Shimizu S-Pulse in 39%.
Scoreline distribution
Shimizu S-Pulse goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 8.5 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 13.5 | 8.8 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 7.6 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.7 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Mito HollyHock goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 41% | 28% | 31% |
| Market reference | 35% | 28% | 36% |
| Metis Forecast | 35% | 28% | 36% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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Mito HollyHock
| 19 Sept | A | vs Yokohama F. Marinos | 0–2 | L |
Shimizu S-Pulse
| 19 Sept | H | vs JEF United Chiba | 2–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.