Mito HollyHock vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima — J1 League forecast, Saturday, 31 October 2026
Mito HollyHock
vs
05:00
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Mito HollyHock
14%
Draw
19%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
67%
Expected goals
0.84–2.09
Mito HollyHock · Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Sanfrecce Hiroshima win 67% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 0–2 (12.0%), 0–1 (10.9%), 1–2 (10.2%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 50% of simulations.
Those three cover 33% of outcomes; the other 67% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Mito HollyHock score at least twice in 21%; Sanfrecce Hiroshima in 62%.
Scoreline distribution
Sanfrecce Hiroshima goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 10.9 | 12.0 | 8.2 | 4.2 | 2.6 |
| 1 | 4.0 | 9.0 | 10.2 | 7.0 | 3.6 | 2.2 |
| 2 | 2.1 | 4.2 | 3.6 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Mito HollyHock goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 14% | 22% | 65% |
| Market reference | 14% | 19% | 67% |
| Metis Forecast | 14% | 19% | 67% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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Mito HollyHock
| 19 Sept | A | vs Yokohama F. Marinos | 0–2 | L |
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
| 19 Sept | A | vs Avispa Fukuoka | 1–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.