Machida Zelvia vs V-varen Nagasaki — J1 League forecast, Saturday, 21 November 2026
Machida Zelvia
vs
05:00
V-varen Nagasaki
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Machida Zelvia
63%
Draw
22%
V-varen Nagasaki
15%
Expected goals
2.02–0.91
Machida Zelvia · V-varen Nagasaki
Machida Zelvia win 63% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 2–0 (11.0%), 1–1 (10.3%), 1–0 (10.3%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 53% of simulations.
Those three cover 32% of outcomes; the other 68% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Machida Zelvia score at least twice in 60%; V-varen Nagasaki in 23%.
Scoreline distribution
V-varen Nagasaki goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 10.3 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.0 | 10.2 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.3 | 6.8 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 2.1 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Machida Zelvia goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 61% | 23% | 16% |
| Market reference | 63% | 22% | 15% |
| Metis Forecast | 63% | 22% | 15% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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Machida Zelvia
| 20 Sept | H | vs Kashiwa Reysol | 2–4 | L |
No recent results.
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.