Machida Zelvia vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima — J1 League forecast, Sunday, 8 November 2026
Machida Zelvia
vs
05:00
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Machida Zelvia
33%
Draw
27%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
40%
Expected goals
1.32–1.50
Machida Zelvia · Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Sanfrecce Hiroshima win 40% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12.9%), 1–2 (8.6%), 2–1 (7.9%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 58% of simulations.
Those three cover 29% of outcomes; the other 71% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Machida Zelvia score at least twice in 38%; Sanfrecce Hiroshima in 44%.
Scoreline distribution
Sanfrecce Hiroshima goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 7.8 | 6.6 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 12.9 | 8.6 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.9 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.4 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Machida Zelvia goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 32% | 27% | 42% |
| Market reference | 33% | 27% | 40% |
| Metis Forecast | 33% | 27% | 40% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
What changed overnight?
vs previous runxG 1.29–1.52 → 1.32–1.50
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Machida Zelvia
| 20 Sept | H | vs Kashiwa Reysol | 2–4 | L |
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
| 19 Sept | A | vs Avispa Fukuoka | 1–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.