Machida Zelvia vs Gamba Osaka — J1 League forecast, Sunday, 1 November 2026
Machida Zelvia
vs
07:00
Gamba Osaka
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Machida Zelvia
55%
Draw
25%
Gamba Osaka
20%
Expected goals
1.82–1.04
Machida Zelvia · Gamba Osaka
Machida Zelvia win 55% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (11.7%), 2–1 (9.9%), 1–0 (9.7%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 55% of simulations.
Those three cover 31% of outcomes; the other 69% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Machida Zelvia win is 2–1 (9.9%).
Machida Zelvia score at least twice in 54%; Gamba Osaka in 28%.
Scoreline distribution
Gamba Osaka goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 5.1 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 11.7 | 5.6 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.9 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 6.0 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Machida Zelvia goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 55% | 25% | 21% |
| Market reference | 55% | 25% | 20% |
| Metis Forecast | 55% | 25% | 20% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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Machida Zelvia
| 20 Sept | H | vs Kashiwa Reysol | 2–4 | L |
Gamba Osaka
| 20 Sept | H | vs Vissel Kobe | 0–1 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.