Kyoto Sanga vs Urawa — J1 League forecast, Saturday, 21 November 2026
Kyoto Sanga
vs
05:00
Urawa
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Kyoto Sanga
30%
Draw
25%
Urawa
45%
Expected goals
1.24–1.58
Kyoto Sanga · Urawa
Urawa win 45% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (11.7%), 1–2 (9.4%), 0–1 (8.8%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 57% of simulations.
Those three cover 30% of outcomes; the other 70% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Urawa win is 1–2 (9.5%).
Kyoto Sanga score at least twice in 35%; Urawa in 47%.
Scoreline distribution
Urawa goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 8.8 | 7.7 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 11.7 | 9.5 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 7.5 | 5.3 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.1 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Kyoto Sanga goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 29% | 27% | 44% |
| Market reference | 30% | 25% | 45% |
| Metis Forecast | 30% | 25% | 45% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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Kyoto Sanga
| 19 Sept | A | vs Fagiano Okayama | 2–1 | W |
No recent results.
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.