Kyoto Sanga vs Shimizu S-Pulse — J1 League forecast, Saturday, 31 October 2026
Kyoto Sanga
vs
05:00
Shimizu S-Pulse
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Kyoto Sanga
33%
Draw
30%
Shimizu S-Pulse
37%
Expected goals
1.40–1.43
Kyoto Sanga · Shimizu S-Pulse
Shimizu S-Pulse win 37% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (14.0%), 1–2 (9.0%), 0–1 (7.7%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 59% of simulations.
Those three cover 31% of outcomes; the other 69% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Kyoto Sanga score at least twice in 40%; Shimizu S-Pulse in 42%.
Scoreline distribution
Shimizu S-Pulse goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 7.7 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 14.0 | 9.0 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 7.2 | 6.6 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.7 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Kyoto Sanga goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 41% | 27% | 32% |
| Market reference | 33% | 30% | 37% |
| Metis Forecast | 33% | 30% | 37% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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Kyoto Sanga
| 19 Sept | A | vs Fagiano Okayama | 2–1 | W |
Shimizu S-Pulse
| 19 Sept | H | vs JEF United Chiba | 2–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.