Kyoto Sanga vs Machida Zelvia — J1 League forecast, Saturday, 10 October 2026
Kyoto Sanga
vs
10:00
Machida Zelvia
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Kyoto Sanga
26%
Draw
24%
Machida Zelvia
50%
Expected goals
1.17–1.73
Kyoto Sanga · Machida Zelvia
Machida Zelvia win 50% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (11.3%), 1–2 (9.8%), 0–1 (8.9%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 57% of simulations.
Those three cover 30% of outcomes; the other 70% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Machida Zelvia win is 1–2 (9.8%).
Kyoto Sanga score at least twice in 33%; Machida Zelvia in 52%.
Scoreline distribution
Machida Zelvia goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 8.9 | 8.4 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 11.3 | 9.8 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 6.7 | 5.2 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Kyoto Sanga goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 25% | 26% | 50% |
| Market reference | 26% | 24% | 50% |
| Metis Forecast | 26% | 24% | 50% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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Kyoto Sanga
| 19 Sept | A | vs Fagiano Okayama | 2–1 | W |
Machida Zelvia
| 20 Sept | H | vs Kashiwa Reysol | 2–4 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.