Kawasaki Frontale vs Nagoya Grampus — J1 League forecast, Sunday, 11 October 2026
Kawasaki Frontale
vs
07:00
Nagoya Grampus
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Kawasaki Frontale
53%
Draw
24%
Nagoya Grampus
24%
Expected goals
1.88–1.25
Kawasaki Frontale · Nagoya Grampus
Kawasaki Frontale win 53% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (10.9%), 2–1 (10.4%), 2–0 (7.9%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 62% of simulations.
Those three cover 29% of outcomes; the other 71% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Kawasaki Frontale win is 2–1 (10.4%).
Kawasaki Frontale score at least twice in 57%; Nagoya Grampus in 35%.
Scoreline distribution
Nagoya Grampus goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 4.3 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 10.9 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 10.4 | 6.0 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 6.2 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Kawasaki Frontale goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 48% | 25% | 27% |
| Market reference | 53% | 24% | 24% |
| Metis Forecast | 53% | 24% | 24% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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Kawasaki Frontale
| 19 Sept | H | vs Kashima Antlers | 3–3 | D |
Nagoya Grampus
| 19 Sept | A | vs FC Tokyo | 0–1 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.