Kawasaki Frontale vs Fagiano Okayama — J1 League forecast, Sunday, 25 October 2026
J1 League·Sunday, 25 October 2026·07:00
Kawasaki Frontale
vs
07:00
Fagiano Okayama
Kawasaki FrontaleExpected goalsFagiano Okayama
1.83 xG1.13 xG
Metis Forecast
Independent model — no market priceModel updated
Kawasaki Frontale
53%
Draw
25%
Fagiano Okayama
23%
Expected goals
1.83–1.13
Kawasaki Frontale · Fagiano Okayama
Kawasaki Frontale win 53% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (11.6%), 2–1 (9.8%), 2–0 (8.6%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 58% of simulations.
Those three cover 30% of outcomes; the other 70% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Kawasaki Frontale win is 2–1 (9.8%).
Kawasaki Frontale score at least twice in 55%; Fagiano Okayama in 31%.
Scoreline distribution
Fagiano Okayama goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 5.0 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 11.6 | 6.1 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.8 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 6.0 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Kawasaki Frontale goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Both teams score58%
Over 1.5 goals80%
Over 2.5 goals57%
Over 3.5 goals35%
Over 4.5 goals18%
Team scoring & clean sheets
Kawasaki Frontale clean sheet32%
Fagiano Okayama clean sheet16%
Kawasaki Frontale score 2+55%
Fagiano Okayama score 2+31%
Kawasaki Frontale score 3+28%
Fagiano Okayama score 3+11%
Most likely scores
1–111.6%
2–19.8%
2–08.6%
1–08.6%
1–26.1%
0–06.0%
What changed overnight?
vs previous runKawasaki Frontale win45% → 53% ▲+7.8pp
Draw26% → 25% ▼-1.3pp
Fagiano Okayama win29% → 23% ▼-6.5pp
xG 1.69–1.25 → 1.83–1.13
Want the model's read each week? Subscribe for free.
Recent form
Kawasaki Frontale
| 19 Sept | H | vs Kashima Antlers | 3–3 | D |
Fagiano Okayama
| 19 Sept | H | vs Kyoto Sanga | 1–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.