Kawasaki Frontale vs Avispa Fukuoka — J1 League forecast, Saturday, 21 November 2026
Kawasaki Frontale
vs
06:00
Avispa Fukuoka
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Kawasaki Frontale
50%
Draw
26%
Avispa Fukuoka
24%
Expected goals
1.79–1.12
Kawasaki Frontale · Avispa Fukuoka
Kawasaki Frontale win 50% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12.3%), 2–1 (8.9%), 2–0 (8.5%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 57% of simulations.
Those three cover 30% of outcomes; the other 70% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Kawasaki Frontale win is 2–1 (8.9%).
Kawasaki Frontale score at least twice in 53%; Avispa Fukuoka in 31%.
Scoreline distribution
Avispa Fukuoka goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 5.6 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 12.3 | 6.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 8.9 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 5.6 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Kawasaki Frontale goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 56% | 24% | 20% |
| Market reference | 50% | 26% | 24% |
| Metis Forecast | 50% | 26% | 24% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
What changed overnight?
vs previous runxG 1.91–1.12 → 1.79–1.12
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Kawasaki Frontale
| 19 Sept | H | vs Kashima Antlers | 3–3 | D |
Avispa Fukuoka
| 19 Sept | H | vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 0–1 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.