Kashiwa Reysol vs Vissel Kobe — J1 League forecast, Friday, 9 October 2026
Kashiwa Reysol
vs
10:00
Vissel Kobe
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Kashiwa Reysol
44%
Draw
27%
Vissel Kobe
28%
Expected goals
1.53–1.25
Kashiwa Reysol · Vissel Kobe
Kashiwa Reysol win 44% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (13.0%), 2–1 (10.0%), 1–0 (9.2%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 57% of simulations.
Those three cover 32% of outcomes; the other 68% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Kashiwa Reysol win is 2–1 (10.0%).
Kashiwa Reysol score at least twice in 46%; Vissel Kobe in 35%.
Scoreline distribution
Vissel Kobe goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 6.0 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 13.0 | 6.6 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 10.0 | 5.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.7 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Kashiwa Reysol goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 37% | 27% | 35% |
| Market reference | 44% | 27% | 28% |
| Metis Forecast | 44% | 27% | 28% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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Kashiwa Reysol
| 20 Sept | A | vs Machida Zelvia | 4–2 | W |
Vissel Kobe
| 20 Sept | A | vs Gamba Osaka | 1–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.