Kashiwa Reysol vs JEF United Chiba — J1 League forecast, Friday, 20 November 2026
Kashiwa Reysol
vs
10:00
JEF United Chiba
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Kashiwa Reysol
61%
Draw
21%
JEF United Chiba
17%
Expected goals
2.03–1.02
Kashiwa Reysol · JEF United Chiba
Kashiwa Reysol win 61% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 2–1 (10.7%), 2–0 (10.0%), 1–1 (10.0%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 56% of simulations.
Those three cover 31% of outcomes; the other 69% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Kashiwa Reysol score at least twice in 61%; JEF United Chiba in 27%.
Scoreline distribution
JEF United Chiba goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 3.9 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 10.0 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 10.7 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 6.9 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Kashiwa Reysol goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 57% | 23% | 19% |
| Market reference | 61% | 21% | 17% |
| Metis Forecast | 61% | 21% | 17% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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Kashiwa Reysol
| 20 Sept | A | vs Machida Zelvia | 4–2 | W |
JEF United Chiba
| 19 Sept | A | vs Shimizu S-Pulse | 1–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.