Kashima vs Shimizu S-pulse — J1 League forecast, Friday, 20 November 2026
Kashima
vs
10:00
Shimizu S-pulse
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Kashima
62%
Draw
22%
Shimizu S-pulse
16%
Expected goals
2.02–0.87
Kashima · Shimizu S-pulse
Kashima win 62% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 2–0 (11.2%), 1–1 (10.5%), 1–0 (10.0%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 51% of simulations.
Those three cover 32% of outcomes; the other 68% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Kashima score at least twice in 59%; Shimizu S-pulse in 22%.
Scoreline distribution
Shimizu S-pulse goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 10.5 | 4.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.2 | 9.3 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.8 | 6.5 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 4.1 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 2.5 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Kashima goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 66% | 21% | 13% |
| Market reference | 62% | 22% | 16% |
| Metis Forecast | 62% | 22% | 16% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.