Kashima Antlers vs Kashiwa Reysol — J1 League forecast, Saturday, 24 October 2026
Kashima Antlers
vs
06:00
Kashiwa Reysol
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Kashima Antlers
41%
Draw
28%
Kashiwa Reysol
32%
Expected goals
1.56–1.41
Kashima Antlers · Kashiwa Reysol
Kashima Antlers win 41% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12.8%), 2–1 (9.3%), 1–0 (7.4%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 61% of simulations.
Those three cover 29% of outcomes; the other 71% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Kashima Antlers score at least twice in 46%; Kashiwa Reysol in 41%.
Scoreline distribution
Kashiwa Reysol goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 5.8 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 12.8 | 7.2 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 9.3 | 6.6 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.6 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Kashima Antlers goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 37% | 26% | 37% |
| Market reference | 41% | 28% | 32% |
| Metis Forecast | 41% | 28% | 32% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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Kashima Antlers
| 19 Sept | A | vs Kawasaki Frontale | 3–3 | D |
Kashiwa Reysol
| 20 Sept | A | vs Machida Zelvia | 4–2 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.