Kashima Antlers vs Gamba Osaka — J1 League forecast, Friday, 9 October 2026
Kashima Antlers
vs
10:00
Gamba Osaka
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Kashima Antlers
53%
Draw
24%
Gamba Osaka
23%
Expected goals
1.67–1.13
Kashima Antlers · Gamba Osaka
Kashima Antlers win 53% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (11.4%), 2–1 (11.4%), 1–0 (10.8%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 56% of simulations.
Those three cover 34% of outcomes; the other 66% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Kashima Antlers win is 2–1 (11.4%).
Kashima Antlers score at least twice in 51%; Gamba Osaka in 31%.
Scoreline distribution
Gamba Osaka goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 5.3 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 11.4 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 11.4 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.6 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Kashima Antlers goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 41% | 27% | 32% |
| Market reference | 53% | 24% | 23% |
| Metis Forecast | 53% | 24% | 23% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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Kashima Antlers
| 19 Sept | A | vs Kawasaki Frontale | 3–3 | D |
Gamba Osaka
| 20 Sept | H | vs Vissel Kobe | 0–1 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.