Kashima Antlers vs Cerezo Osaka — J1 League forecast, Saturday, 31 October 2026
Kashima Antlers
vs
06:00
Cerezo Osaka
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Kashima Antlers
56%
Draw
23%
Cerezo Osaka
21%
Expected goals
1.82–1.15
Kashima Antlers · Cerezo Osaka
Kashima Antlers win 56% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 2–1 (12.1%), 1–1 (10.7%), 1–0 (10.1%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 59% of simulations.
Those three cover 33% of outcomes; the other 67% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Kashima Antlers score at least twice in 56%; Cerezo Osaka in 32%.
Scoreline distribution
Cerezo Osaka goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 4.2 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 10.7 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 12.1 | 5.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 6.3 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Kashima Antlers goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 42% | 26% | 32% |
| Market reference | 56% | 23% | 21% |
| Metis Forecast | 56% | 23% | 21% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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Kashima Antlers
| 19 Sept | A | vs Kawasaki Frontale | 3–3 | D |
Cerezo Osaka
| 19 Sept | A | vs V-Varen Nagasaki | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.