JEF United Chiba vs V-Varen Nagasaki — J1 League forecast, Sunday, 11 October 2026
JEF United Chiba
vs
05:00
V-Varen Nagasaki
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
JEF United Chiba
34%
Draw
28%
V-Varen Nagasaki
38%
Expected goals
1.32–1.40
JEF United Chiba · V-Varen Nagasaki
V-Varen Nagasaki win 38% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (13.4%), 1–2 (8.3%), 2–1 (8.2%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 56% of simulations.
Those three cover 30% of outcomes; the other 70% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
JEF United Chiba score at least twice in 38%; V-Varen Nagasaki in 41%.
Scoreline distribution
V-Varen Nagasaki goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 8.0 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 13.4 | 8.3 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.2 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: JEF United Chiba goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 33% | 28% | 39% |
| Market reference | 34% | 28% | 38% |
| Metis Forecast | 34% | 28% | 38% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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JEF United Chiba
| 19 Sept | A | vs Shimizu S-Pulse | 1–2 | L |
V-Varen Nagasaki
| 19 Sept | H | vs Cerezo Osaka | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.