JEF United Chiba vs Mito HollyHock — J1 League forecast, Sunday, 8 November 2026
JEF United Chiba
vs
08:00
Mito HollyHock
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
JEF United Chiba
46%
Draw
27%
Mito HollyHock
27%
Expected goals
1.58–1.15
JEF United Chiba · Mito HollyHock
JEF United Chiba win 46% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (13.0%), 2–1 (9.3%), 1–0 (9.2%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 55% of simulations.
Those three cover 32% of outcomes; the other 68% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely JEF United Chiba win is 2–1 (9.3%).
JEF United Chiba score at least twice in 47%; Mito HollyHock in 32%.
Scoreline distribution
Mito HollyHock goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 6.5 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 13.0 | 6.8 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.3 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.9 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: JEF United Chiba goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 47% | 27% | 27% |
| Market reference | 46% | 27% | 27% |
| Metis Forecast | 46% | 27% | 27% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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JEF United Chiba
| 19 Sept | A | vs Shimizu S-Pulse | 1–2 | L |
Mito HollyHock
| 19 Sept | A | vs Yokohama F. Marinos | 0–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.