JEF United Chiba vs Avispa Fukuoka — J1 League forecast, Sunday, 1 November 2026
JEF United Chiba
vs
05:00
Avispa Fukuoka
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
JEF United Chiba
32%
Draw
29%
Avispa Fukuoka
39%
Expected goals
1.15–1.24
JEF United Chiba · Avispa Fukuoka
Avispa Fukuoka win 39% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (13.6%), 0–1 (11.2%), 0–0 (9.8%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 49% of simulations.
Those three cover 35% of outcomes; the other 65% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
JEF United Chiba score at least twice in 32%; Avispa Fukuoka in 36%.
Scoreline distribution
Avispa Fukuoka goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 11.2 | 7.2 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 13.5 | 8.8 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 7.1 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: JEF United Chiba goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 36% | 30% | 34% |
| Market reference | 32% | 29% | 39% |
| Metis Forecast | 32% | 29% | 39% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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JEF United Chiba
| 19 Sept | A | vs Shimizu S-Pulse | 1–2 | L |
Avispa Fukuoka
| 19 Sept | H | vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 0–1 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.