Gamba Osaka vs Kyoto Sanga — J1 League forecast, Saturday, 24 October 2026
Gamba Osaka
vs
07:00
Kyoto Sanga
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Gamba Osaka
50%
Draw
24%
Kyoto Sanga
26%
Expected goals
1.66–1.16
Gamba Osaka · Kyoto Sanga
Gamba Osaka win 50% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (11.5%), 2–1 (10.3%), 1–0 (9.7%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 56% of simulations.
Those three cover 32% of outcomes; the other 68% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Gamba Osaka win is 2–1 (10.3%).
Gamba Osaka score at least twice in 50%; Kyoto Sanga in 32%.
Scoreline distribution
Kyoto Sanga goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 5.9 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 11.5 | 6.5 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 10.3 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.4 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Gamba Osaka goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 45% | 27% | 28% |
| Market reference | 50% | 24% | 26% |
| Metis Forecast | 50% | 24% | 26% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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Gamba Osaka
| 20 Sept | H | vs Vissel Kobe | 0–1 | L |
Kyoto Sanga
| 19 Sept | A | vs Fagiano Okayama | 2–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.